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2026年4月17日
涉华 重要 外交事务 1 分钟阅读

美媒分析称美伊冲突令美方深陷泥潭并间接利好中方

外交事务 美国国际关系与外交政策领域的权威期刊
摘要
《外交事务》杂志近日刊文分析指出,特朗普政府因深陷伊朗战争泥潭,导致其原定与中方领导人的高层会晤被迫推迟,这暴露出美方在同时管理多重全球挑战方面的能力不足。文章指出,美方目前面临能源价格飙升和军人伤亡增加的沉重压力,军事重心被迫从中亚太地区向中东回流。这种战略重心偏移造成的空窗期,客观上为中方提升地区影响力、塑造“负责任和平缔造者”形象提供了机会。即便目前达成了停火协议,美方因其不可预测的军事行为已严重损害了其国际信誉。文章强调,美方的军事扩张不仅未能实现其宣称的战略目标,反而削弱了其在印太地区的竞争地位。这一趋势如果持续,将重塑全球地缘政治格局,使美方的全球领导地位面临来自多方的严峻挑战。
中文译文

特朗普原定于3月底与中方领导人会晤,以稳定这两个世界上最重要的双边关系。然而,随着中东战火蔓延、能源价格飙升以及美军士兵遗体运回国内,特朗普得出结论:此时前往北京进行高规格会晤并非良策。3月16日,他将行程推迟至5月。在宣布峰会仅八天后便发动了对伊战争,这一事实暴露了其管理多重全球挑战能力的不足。

特朗普政府为这场战争设定了多个目标,包括政权更迭和摧毁核计划。一些支持者甚至辩称,打击伊朗将有助于与中方的竞争。前副国家安全顾问马特·波廷杰在接受采访时表示,这场战争挑战了包括伊朗、朝鲜和俄方在内的“混乱轴心”。参议员林赛·格雷厄姆也表示,对伊朗的军事干预是对中方的“噩梦”。

然而事实截然不同。尽管依赖霍尔木兹海峡的能源进口,中方已做好了应对短期能源中断的准备。随着美军深陷中东,中方在东亚的行动更加自由。当特朗普采取不负责任的行动时,中方可以表现为负责任的和平缔造者。即便4月7日达成的停火协议得以维持,美方因其不可预测的行为已严重损害了自身信誉。

英文原文
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President Donald Trump was meant to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the end of March to stabilize the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship. But as the Middle East burned, energy prices skyrocketed, and the bodies of U.S. service members returned to the United States, Trump reached the conclusion that a trip to Beijing for a high-profile meeting would not be a good look. On March 16, he postponed the trip until May. The fact that he failed to foresee this collision of crises when he originally announced the summit—just eight days before he launched his war of choice on Iran—exposes the administration’s inability to manage multiple global challenges, even those of its own making.The Trump administration has bandied about a number of goals for its war in Iran, including regime change and destroying the country’s nuclear program. Some Trump boosters have even argued that bombing Iran will help the United States in its competition with China. Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser in Trump’s first term, contended in an interview with Bloomberg that the Iran war challenges China’s “axis of chaos,” which also includes Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The Republican senator and Trump loyalist Lindsey Graham, for his part, said in a March interview with Fox News that U.S. military interventions in oil-rich Iran and Venezuela, which are friendly to Beijing, were “China’s nightmare.”The reality, however, is far different. Despite relying on energy imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, China has insulated itself against a near-term disruption in energy supplies. With the U.S. military bogged down in the Middle East, China has a freer hand in East Asia. As Trump behaves erratically and violates international law, China can present itself as a responsible peacemaker. Even if the U.S.-Iranian cease-fire that was agreed to on April 7 holds, the United States has injured its reputation by acting unpredictably, betraying its allies, and starting a war that has done serious damage to the global economy.When the U.S.-Chinese summit eventually takes place, Xi will enter the talks with significant leverage. While the United States squandered precious military and political capital in the Middle East, China was preparing to get what it wants at the negotiating table. A flailing Trump could trade valuable U.S. assets in exchange for short-term commercial wins—and a lopsided deal with the United States’ biggest rival could undermine U.S. security and prosperity for decades.UNFORCED ERRORTrump’s war of choice in Iran has come at the expense of the United States’ security umbrella in the Indo-Pacific, presenting an opportunity for Beijing. The United States has moved materiel from East Asia to the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, one of only five U.S. aircraft carriers on active duty globally, and powerful missile defense systems. Many of these batteries were taken from South Korea, which for yea

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原文链接:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/iran-war-win-china