随着休战开始,以色列国防军将维持原位,但真主党的角色、执行力度、平民流离失所及重建范围在谈判继续期间仍不明朗。根据目前概述的条款,停火是临时性的,并非永久协议。以色列国防军预计将留在黎巴嫩南部的现有位置,直至利塔尼河,且不会在停火期间撤军。
真主党武装的地位仍不确定。黎巴嫩军队被认为无法完全确保真主党从该地区撤离,这引发了人们对该组织可能利用战斗间歇重新集结或重新部署的担忧。特朗普表示,他已指派副总统万斯、国务卿卢比奥和参联会主席丹·凯恩与以色列及黎巴嫩合作,以达成更持久的安排。以色列和黎巴嫩代表已经在国务院进行了初步外交接触。
虽然特朗普的公告中未提及伊朗,但停火被广泛认为与美国同德黑兰正在进行的谈判有关,万斯在两条路径中都发挥了核心作用。在以色列,安全内阁并未正式就停火进行投票。在一次紧急电话中,内塔尼亚胡总理告知部长们,应特朗普要求,停火将于午夜开始,并补充说国防军将原地不动。地面上仍有几个主要问题悬而未决。在真主党据点宾特朱拜勒等地,战斗尚未完全结束。此外,被摧毁的村庄基础设施和流离失所平民的回归条件也尚未明确。
IDF to stay in place as truce begins, but Hezbollah role, enforcement, displaced civilians, reconstruction and scope of military activity all remain unclear as negotiations continueUnder the terms outlined so far, the ceasefire is temporary and not a permanent agreement. The IDF is expected to remain in its current positions in southern Lebanon, up to the Litani River, and will not withdraw during the truce.1 View gallery (Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir)The status of Hezbollah forces remains uncertain. The Lebanese army is not seen as capable of fully enforcing Hezbollah’s absence from the area, raising concerns the group could use the pause in fighting to regroup or reposition.Trump said he has tasked Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine with working alongside Israel and Lebanon to reach a more durable arrangement. Initial diplomatic contacts have already taken place at the State Department between Israeli and Lebanese representatives.While Iran was not mentioned in Trump’s announcement, the ceasefire is widely seen as linked to ongoing U.S. talks with Tehran, with Vance playing a central role in both tracks.In Israel, the security Cabinet did not formally vote on the ceasefire. During an urgent phone call, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed ministers the truce would begin at midnight at Trump’s request, adding that IDF forces would remain in place.Several major questions remain unresolved on the ground. Fighting has not fully ended in areas such as Bint Jbeil, a Hezbollah stronghold, where dozens of terrorists are believed to still be present.The fate of displaced Lebanese civilians is also unclear. During the fighting, IDF forces destroyed hundreds of structures in villages near the border that were identified as Hezbollah infrastructure, forcing large numbers of residents to flee. It remains uncertain whether, and under what conditions, they will be able to return.Infrastructure damage poses another challenge. Since the start of the fighting, Israeli strikes have hit multiple bridges over the Litani River, and it is unclear whether reconstruction will be permitted during the ceasefire.It also remains to be seen whether IDF forces will hold static positions during the truce or retain the ability to carry out limited operations if needed, underscoring the fragile and uncertain nature of the ceasefire.