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2026年4月17日
中东 一般 以色列时报 1 分钟阅读

海湾国家反击伊朗?地缘专家深度剖析中东权力博弈

以色列时报 专注中东外交与地区冲突的专业媒体
海湾国家反击伊朗?地缘专家深度剖析中东权力博弈
摘要
地缘政治专家莫兰·扎加近期对海湾国家针对伊朗军事威胁的反应进行了深度剖析。扎加指出,所谓的“海湾国家”并非铁板一块,沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔等国在处理与伊关系上存在显著的动态差异。然而,随着局势演变,这些国家正共同面临来自伊朗及其代理人的严峻挑战。特别是今年2月28日以来,多国安全利益受损,传统的以外交手段换取安全的策略在某种程度上已告失败。目前,海湾各国正在重新评估对伊战略,关注点已扩展至霍尔木兹海峡的通航权以及红海出口的安全性。报道还提及,针对伊朗的军事威慑正向周边库尔德地区、土耳其及阿塞拜疆等节点渗透,地区安全形势正经历深刻的结构性调整,海湾国家与以色列之间的潜在安全合作动向也成为讨论焦点。
中文译文

“海湾国家”这个简写词并不代表一个整体。波斯湾沿岸的阿拉伯国家——沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特和巴林——都有各自独特的内部动态,并以不同的方式处理与以色列和伊朗的关系。然而,他们确实面临着一个共同的威胁——水对岸的什叶派地区重量级国家伊朗。

海湾国家将稳定和繁荣放在首位,一直试图防止美伊爆发战争。如果战争爆发,他们希望通过与伊朗保持外交渠道并展示其在为停火而努力,来确保免受伊朗的攻击。但这种努力惨遭失败。所有的海湾国家都成为了伊朗的目标,而阿联酋是自2月28日开始的冲突中受打击最严重的国家。

海湾国家在冲突中显得软弱,因为没有一个国家予以还击,他们也未能提出统一的外交倡议来结束战争。海法大学及MIND Israel的海湾国家专家莫兰·扎加解释了这些国家如何重新审视应对伊朗威胁的方法,以及他们是否愿意与以色列深化关系。目前,他们正面临威胁其经济福祉的新挑战——霍尔木兹海峡的关闭、胡塞武装关闭红海通道的可能性,以及伊朗坚持要求由其决定谁可以进入波斯湾。

英文原文
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Welcome to The Times of Israel’s Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what’s behind the news that spins the globe.

The shorthand term “Gulf states” doesn’t describe a monolith. The Arab states along the Persian Gulf — Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain — all have unique internal dynamics and approach their relationships with both Israel and Iran in different ways.

WATCH the full episode here:

Yet they do share a common threat — the Shiite regional heavyweight just across the water — Iran.

Placing a priority on stability and prosperity, the Gulf states have sought to prevent a war between the US and Iran. And if that war did break out, they hoped to secure immunity from Iranian attacks by maintaining diplomatic channels with the Islamic Republic and by showing that they were working for a ceasefire.

That effort failed spectacularly. All the Gulf states were targeted by Iran, and the UAE was the country hardest hit by Iran in the war that began on February 28.

The war made the countries look weak, as none of them hit back, nor were they able to put together a unified diplomatic initiative to end the war.

Moran Zaga, expert on the Gulf states at the University of Haifa and at MIND Israel, explains how each of these countries is rethinking its approach to the Iran threat, and whether they are open to deeper ties with Israel.

For now, she says, they are facing new and pressing challenges that threaten their economic well-being — the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the possibility that the Houthis will shut down the approaches to the Red Sea, and Iran’s insistence that it should decide who gets to enter the Persian Gulf.

Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.

Check out last week’s Lazar Focus:

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原文链接:https://www.timesofisrael.com/moran-zaga-the-gulf-states-react-to-humiliation-by-iran/