伊朗没有海军，没有空军，在常规战斗中没有击败美国海军的现实路径。它对抗封锁的武器是“见证者”无人机蜂群、来自地下设施的小艇攻击、多达30艘爆炸性微型潜艇，以及时间本身——将其作为对抗美国政治意志的武器。
伊朗击败美国的计划：仅仅是生存？
本周，唐纳德·特朗普总统下令封锁霍尔木兹海峡，以回应伊朗允许船只通过海峡封锁的行为。封锁的最大风险始于并终于三个明确的战斗现实：即自杀式无人机、微型潜艇和小艇攻击是伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡挑战美国海军封锁的主要武器。
弹道导弹极易被战舰追踪和拦截，伊朗不再拥有可以对美国海军发起攻击的海军或空军。美国海军战舰装备了一种被称为“宙斯盾”（Aegis）作战系统的集成系统，该系统利用雷达、指挥控制和舰载拦截弹在海上跟踪并摧毁来袭的弹道导弹攻击。在红海，当胡塞武装的无人机和巡航导弹袭击美国海军舰艇时，“宙斯盾”雷达被证明极其成功，海军在行动中表现出了“完美”的状态。
Iran has no Navy, no Air Force, and no realistic path to defeating the U.S. Navy in a conventional fight. Its weapons against the blockade are Shahed drone swarms, small boat attacks from underground facilities, up to 30 explosive mini-submarines — and time itself, used as a weapon against American political will.
Iran’s Plan to Beat America: Just Survive?
This week, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran’s allowing ships through the blockade of the waterway.
The largest risk with the blockade begins and ends with three clear combat realities: meaning suicide drones, mini-submarines, and small boat attacks are the main weapons Iran would likely use to challenge the U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
210911-N-OP825-1213 PACIFIC OCEAN (Sept. 11, 2021) Sailors aboard amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) man the rails on the ship’s flight deck as the ship prepares to pull into San Francisco in support of San Francisco Fleet Week (SFFW), Sept. 11, 2021. SFFW is an opportunity for the American public to meet their Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard teams and experience America’s sea services. During fleet week, service members participate in various community service events, showcase capabilities and equipment to the community, and enjoy the hospitality of San Francisco and its surrounding areas. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Erica Higa /Released)
Ballistic missiles would be easily tracked and intercepted by warships, and Iran has no more Navy or Air Force with which to mount an attack on the U.S. Navy.
U.S. Navy warships are armed with an integrated system called the Aegis Combat System, which uses radar, command and control, and ship-launched interceptors to track and destroy incoming ballistic missile attacks at sea.
Aegis radar proved extremely successful in the Red Sea when Houthi drones and cruise missiles attacked U.S. Navy ships, as the Navy operated with a “perfect” defensive record.
Houthi forces hit some commercial ships, but no missiles landed on U.S. Navy ships, and the service has now rapidly integrated new drone-defense weapons for maritime combat.
Iranian Shahed Drone Swarms
The threat of Shahed drones resides mostly in the concept of swarm, meaning an overwhelming number of drones.
U.S. Marines, with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), transport ordinance on the flight deck of America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7), Mar. 20, 2026. Tripoli is currently underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. U.S. 7th Fleet, is the U.S. Navy’s largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, routinely interacts and operates with allies and partners in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Reese Mitchell Taylor)
A single suicide drone is very likely to be spotted from air, ground, and surface ship sensors and be intercepted or destr