美国通过封锁加强能源外交博弈
随着美方在地球两端同时启动封锁,能源运输正日益成为外交政策的工具。特朗普政府旨在通过在霍尔木兹海峡对伊朗船舶实施海军封锁,对伊施加经济压力。这一举动引发了中方的强烈担忧,其呼吁这种封锁是“不负责任且危险的”。
关键博弈点:
- 对伊封锁:旨在切断伊朗原油出口,迫使中东局势按美方意愿解决。
- 古巴燃料封锁:美方威胁对向古巴运送原油的国家征收关税。然而,俄罗斯已突破封锁,派遣载有10万吨原油的“阿纳托利·科洛德金号”抵达马坦萨斯码头。
- 政策矛盾:制裁专家指出,美方在执行这些封锁时存在矛盾。当俄罗斯油轮停靠时,华盛顿并未严格执行修正后的GL-134A制裁禁令。特朗普曾公开表示,他并不介意俄罗斯向古巴供油。
这些封锁行动引发了国际社会对美方海上执法权限的质疑,尤其是在下个月即将举行的高层峰会之前。分析人士正关注美方是否会因油轮违规行为对俄方采取更严厉手段。
A man stands as a tugboat guides the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin at the oil terminal in the port of Matanzas, northwestern Cuba, on March 31, 2026.Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty ImagesEnergy shipments are increasingly being used as foreign policy tool as the Trump administration attempts to hold down two blockades on opposite sides of the globe.The U.S., under the direction of President Donald Trump, has initiated a naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels in and around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, seeking to put economic pressure on Iran and bring an end to the Middle East crisis.The move has prompted concern from China, given it has long been the largest buyer of Iranian crude, with Beijing calling the blockade "irresponsible and dangerous." At the same time, the U.S. has imposed a de facto fuel blockade on Cuba, threatening to impose tariffs on any country that sends crude to the communist-run Caribbean island. Russia, which has already breached the U.S. blockade by delivering a shipment of 100,000 tons of crude oil to the fuel-starved nation, has pledged to keep supplying Cuba with vital supplies of oil.Sanctions experts and analysts say both blockades raise questions about the Trump administration's appetite for challenges to its maritime authority, particularly ahead of the U.S. president's summit with China's Xi Jinping next month.watch nowBrett Erickson, a sanctions expert and managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the prospect of a second Russian oil tanker reaching Cuba over the coming weeks is highly likely, highlighting the White House's own contradictions. "When the Anatoly Kolodkin docked at the Matanzas oil terminal, it was in direct violation of U.S. sanctions. GL-134 had already been amended to GL-134A, which explicitly excluded deliveries to Cuba. Washington simply chose not to enforce it," Erickson told CNBC by email."Trump then publicly stated he didn't care whether Russia delivered to Cuba. Having made that statement and having declined to interdict, or even harass, the first vessel, it becomes politically untenable to now move against a second."CNBC has contacted a White House spokesperson for the comment and is awaiting a response.The U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which started Monday, marked a sharp escalation in the conflict despite a pause in hostilities agreed April 7. Trump suggested on Thursday, however, that the war in Iran could end "pretty soon." He also touted a second round of face-to-face negotiations between American and Iranian officials "probably, maybe, next weekend."Trump-Xi talksWhen it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, Erickson said the more dangerous escalation scenario here does not concern a Russian shadow fleet tanker, but rather a Chinese-linked or Chinese-flagged vessel carrying Iranian oil. He pointed out that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the U.S. will not renew a general license that the White House temporarily granted for the sale of Russian and Irani