战争研究所（ISW）与美国企业研究院的关键威胁项目（CTP）正在发布每日简报，以提供针对伊朗战争的分析。更新重点涵盖美国和以色列对伊朗的打击，以及伊朗和“抵抗之弧”对打击的回应。本简报涵盖过去24小时内的事件。
核心要点
美国海军部队继续对伊朗港口实施封锁。美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）4月15日报告称，在封锁实施的前48小时内，没有船只违反针对伊朗港口的封锁。
据报道，美国为新一轮谈判设定了两个前提条件：第一，伊朗必须全面“重新开放”霍尔木兹海峡；第二，伊朗谈判代表团必须拥有敲定协议的“全权”。第二个前提条件的提出正值伊朗政权内部冲突的报道频出，这证实了ISW-CTP的评估，即美方正在与一个由强硬派和务实派组成的、存在分歧的委员会进行谈判，而非一个单一、统一的权威机构。
部分伊朗官员在与美国的谈判中表达了不同程度的核计划妥协意愿。这些表态在一定程度上反映了伊朗内部在谈判立场上的分歧。
以色列国防部长以色列·卡茨于4月14日表示，美国和以色列已决定，移除伊朗境内的浓缩铀是结束美以联合军事行动的“门槛条件”。
4月15日，美国财政部制裁了29个目标，包括3名个人、17家公司和9艘船只。这些目标与伊朗石油走私及相关融资网络有关，是美国对伊朗更广泛经济施压行动的一部分。
据报道，巴基斯坦正推动美国和伊朗将停火协议延长45天。美国总统特朗普4月14日在接受美国广播公司（ABC）新闻采访时表示，他目前不考虑延长停火期。
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period.
Key Takeaways
US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on April 15 that no vessels had breached the blockade on Iranian ports during the first 48 hours of enforcement.
The United States has reportedly set two preconditions for another round of negotiations: first, Iran must fully “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz, and second, the Iranian negotiating delegation must have “full authority” to finalize a deal. The second precondition comes amid reports of intra-regime conflict and corroborates ISW-CTP’s assessment that the United States is negotiating with a divided council of hardliners and pragmatists rather than a singular, unified authority.
Some Iranian officials have signaled different levels of willingness to compromise on Iran’s nuclear program in negotiations with the United States. These statements, at least to some extent, reflect internal disagreement over Iran’s negotiating position.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 14 that the United States and Israel have decided that removing the enriched uranium from Iran is a “threshold condition” for ending the US-Israeli campaign.
The US Treasury sanctioned 29 targets, including three individuals, 17 companies, and nine vessels on April 15, which are tied to Iranian oil smuggling and associated financing networks as part of the United States’ broader economic pressure campaign on Iran.
Pakistan is reportedly pushing the United States and Iran to extend the ceasefire by 45 days. US President Donald Trump told ABC News on April 14 that he is not considering extending the ceasefire that ends on April 22.
Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its ballistic missile forces program on the tactical level by attempting to reopen tunnel entrances at missile bases.
Iran reportedly utilized an advanced reconnaissance satellite purchased from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2024 to target US military assets and bases across the Middle East during the war.
The Israeli Security Cabinet reportedly held a meeting on April 15 to discuss a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, amid recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon under US auspices. Israeli officials have not announced the outcome of the security cabinet meeting at the time of this writing, however.
Toplines
US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on April 15 that no vessels had breached the blockade on Iranian ports during the first 48 hours of enforcement.[1] CENTCOM stated that nine vessels complied with the US direction
