作者：约纳·杰里米·鲍勃，2026年4月16日
关于特朗普和内塔尼亚胡周四宣布的即将实施的为期10天的真主党停火协议，以色列国内许多人会感到愤怒。但事实是，以色列在这一轮战争中已经实现了其在军事上所能实现的大部分目标。
2024年秋季，以色列摧毁了真主党15万枚火箭弹库存的70%-80%，仅剩下约20%-30%，并暗杀了真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。在目前的战争期间，它已将真主党的实力削弱到2023年之前的10%左右。
此外，以色列国防军已在2024年秋季接管了黎巴嫩南部的大部分地区。2025年2月，以军撤退到边境附近的五个据点。2026年4月14日，一架以色列军用直升机在黎以边境附近飞行。
以色列国防军现在已经重新占领了黎巴嫩南部全境，疏散了更多的什叶派居民，并明确表示如果真主党继续威胁以色列，以方不会匆忙撤离。以色列在北部也遭受了真主党的严重打击，但与2023-2024年冲突期间遭受的全国性打击相比，情况要轻得多。
仅靠战争无法击败真主党
以色列国防军高级指挥官多次明确表示，他们没有能力仅靠军事力量消除真主党。在加沙经历了两年战争并摧毁了实力弱得多的哈马斯约90%的建筑后，这一目标仍未实现。因此，仅靠武力对付真主党也是行不通的。
以色列能做的是延续2024年11月停火后的做法：当真主党试图重新武装并威胁以色列时，通过精准打击使其承受压力。以色列还可以长期占领黎巴嫩南部，将其作为筹码，迫使黎巴嫩政府进一步剥夺真主党的权力。此外，由于伊朗将面临更深重的财务危机，真主党获得重建资金的渠道也将缩减。
ByYONAH JEREMY BOBAPRIL 16, 2026 19:19Updated: APRIL 16, 2026 20:29Many in Israel will be furious with US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the impending 10-day ceasefire with Hezbollah that Trump declared on Thursday.But the fact is that Israel had already achieved in this round of war most of what it could militarily.Israel destroyed 70%-80% of Hezbollah’s 150,000 rocket arsenal in the fall of 2024, leaving it with about 20%-30%, and it assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.During this war, it has knocked Hezbollah down to about 10% of what it had pre-2023.Also, the IDF had taken over most of southern Lebanon in the fall of 2024. In February 2025, it withdrew to five outposts near the border.An Israeli military helicopter flies near the Israeli border with Lebanon, on April 14, 2026. (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)The IDF has now retaken all of southern Lebanon, evacuated far more Shi’ites from there, and made it clear it will not rush to leave if Hezbollah keeps threatening Israel.Israel also took serious hits from Hezbollah in the North, but much less when compared with the hits it took in the North and all over the country during the 2023-2024 conflict.Hezbollah cannot be defeated by war aloneTop IDF commanders have repeatedly made it clear that they do not have the capacity to eliminate Hezbollah solely using military force.This did not occur in Gaza after two years of war and destroying about 90% of the buildings against the much weaker Hamas.So, it was not going to happen solely by military force with Hezbollah either.What Israel can do is what it did after the November 2024 ceasefire: Hold Hezbollah’s feet to the fire with individual attacks when it tries to rearm and threaten Israel.It can also hold onto southern Lebanon longer as a bargaining chip to get the Lebanese government to further disempower Hezbollah.Hezbollah may also receive less funding to rebuild from Iran, which will face a much deeper financial crisis coming out of this war.None of this means Israel’s problems with Hezbollah will disappear. But Israel did achieve some additional progress in this war, even if it is less than what many had hoped.Now it is time for the diplomats to translate the military’s achievements into a more permanent and favorable postwar framework.
