特朗普周四宣布的黎巴嫩10天停火协议是极其迫切的，但同时也必须保持高度谨慎。伊朗和调解人巴斯基坦认为，在上周美国-以色列-伊朗达成停火协议后，黎巴嫩理应包含在内，但以色列在随后的“黑色星期三”10分钟内发动了100次空袭，造成数百人死亡，更多人受伤。黎巴嫩卷入这场危机是源于特朗普对德黑兰的军事政策，不应被排除在休战之外。美国政府急于摆脱更广泛的冲突，目前正在限制内塔尼亚胡的行动，但这种限制是有限度的。
周四，以色列军队摧毁了连接黎巴嫩南部与该国其他地区的最后一座桥梁，并袭击了一所学校。此前一天，他们杀害了至少四名医护人员。据报道，已有2100多人在冲突中丧生，其中包括至少172名儿童，成千上万的人受伤。五分之一的人口流离失所，有些人甚至永久失去家园。以色列占领了大片土地，正将整个村庄从地图上抹去。以色列国防部长曾表示，这一行动是模仿其在加沙的行动。
周二黎巴嫩和以色列之间的直接谈判是一个显著的转变。但黎巴嫩政府并未参与这场战争，也无法控制真主党，而真主党才是战斗的主体。虽然黎政府试图重申主权，包括此前宣布驱逐伊朗大使，但该大使目前仍留在原位。真主党并未阻挠本周的谈判，伊朗也希望结束更大范围的冲突。然而，黎巴嫩总统约瑟夫·奥恩拒绝了美国提出的与内塔尼亚胡通话的请求。这一进程显然存在局限性。
停火前景与美伊讨论紧密相连，双方分歧依然巨大。以色列的出发点是在战争中解除真主党的武装，而真主党则要求以色列撤军。本周末突访黎巴嫩南部的内塔尼亚胡表示，以色列将确保其安全要求得到满足。
The 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon that Donald Trump announced on Thursday is desperately needed. It must also be regarded with immense caution. Iran and mediator Pakistan believed that Lebanon was covered by last week’s US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, before Israel unleashed 100 strikes in 10 minutes – killing hundreds and wounding many more on “Black Wednesday”. Lebanon was pulled into this crisis by Mr Trump’s illegal war on Tehran, and should not have been excluded from his truce. The US president, desperately seeking an exit to the broader conflict, is now reining in Mr Netanyahu. But only up to a point.Israeli forces on Thursday destroyed the last bridge linking Lebanon’s south to the rest of the country and struck a school. The previous day they killed at least four paramedics – the latest of scores to have died. More than 2,100 people have reportedly been killed, including at least 172 children. Thousands have been injured. One in five of the population are displaced, some permanently: having occupied a vast swathe of land, Israel is wiping whole villages from the map. Its own defence minister described that as modelled on its actions in Gaza.Tuesday’s direct talks between Lebanon and Israel were a striking departure. But Lebanon is not fighting this war, and it does not control Hezbollah, which is. The government has seen new opportunities to assert itself. But it announced the expulsion of Iran’s ambassador a month ago. He remains in place. Hezbollah did not obstruct this week’s talks; Iran also wants to end the wider conflict. But the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, rejected a US request to speak to Mr Netanyahu. There are limits to this process.Its prospects are irrevocably tied to US-Iranian discussions, and the gulf between sides is similarly vast. Israel’s starting point is the disarmament of Hezbollah – in the midst of war. Hezbollah demands Israeli withdrawal. Mr Netanyahu, who paid a surprise visit to Lebanon’s south this weekend, said that Israel would expand what it calls a “buffer zone” to protect its citizens. Permanent war suits the Israeli prime minister, and his far-right coalition partners are determined to expand Israel’s borders.There is real anger in Lebanon at Hezbollah: its rocket attacks upon Israel, in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, triggered this war. But Israel’s devastating attacks have also made the Lebanese government and army look impotent, and left citizens desperate for help which the state cannot provide – driving them towards the militant group. The disruption caused by the displacement of over a million people is magnified by fear that those fleeing Israel’s attacks will be targeted by Israel – endangering any community which takes them in. The spectre of sharpened social and communal divisions in a country which endured years of civil war could hardly be grimmer.There is increasing disquiet in countries which have long supported Israel, including the US, at its actions. That must transla
