冲突驱动能源转型：全球能源安全格局发生深刻变化

Early signs are emerging that the energy shock could aid the global spread of renewable power, batteries, electric cars and other climate-friendly tech.Why it matters: The throttling of oil and gas transit — together with higher prices — has short- and long-term consequences for use and economics of different fuels.Driving the news: Very early data disputes the conventional wisdom that coal — the most carbon dioxide-emitting fuel — is a winner, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a research group.Instead, global power generation from fossil fuels was down in the first month of the war.Solar and wind power was up, as renewables offset more of the decline in gas-fired power than coal did, writes Lauri Myllyvirta, the group's lead analyst.State of play: Only Japan and South Korea saw "significant increases" in coal-fired generation.India and South Africa were among the nations to register big drops.Germany and other EU nations, Japan, the U.K. and India saw year-over-year jumps in wind or solar in March.What we're watching: The scope of efforts to swap out imported oil and gas with homegrown sources — some clean, some not — and cleantech imports that don't rely on risky trade routes.The outcome will depend on prices, but also on how much energy-importing nations remain spooked about the stability of the global oil and gas trade even after the war ends."Any domestic energy will be prioritized," Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of multinational energy giant TotalEnergies, told Axios' Amy Harder in an interview. He includes renewables on the list.What they're saying: "This thing is like a giant energy security Rorschach test," said Ethan Zindler of the clean energy research firm BloombergNEF.Some coal-rich nations, like Indonesia, will look to their domestic supplies.But other countries "don't have a tremendous amount of stuff underground that they can just extract at a low cost," he said in an interview."And so for them, energy security is going to ultimately [be] more about importing clean energy equipment."Zoom out: Pillars of the bull case for cleantech include...South Korea's president calling for faster renewables uptake, France's prime minister talking up renewables and nuclear, and other examples the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air cites.Zindler notes that clean energy markets, solar in particular, have a substantial amount of manufacturing overcapacity — much of it in China — that's pushing down prices.Even in the U.S. — which is feeling less economic pain than many nations and has a very pro-fossil fuel White House — higher gasoline prices appear to be creating more interest in electric vehicles on car-shopping sites.Yes, but: The analysis notes an uptick in March coal-fired generation in China, by far the world's largest user of the fuel.What's next: EU officials — stung by roughly $26 billion in higher fossil fuel import costs since the war began — will propose new clean electrification plans.Reality check: Memories can be