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DIRECT2026年4月17日
专家分析:黎巴嫩真主党并非独立力量而是伊朗前哨武装
耶路撒冷邮报以色列历史悠久且极具影响力的英文主流日报
专家分析:黎巴嫩真主党并非独立力量而是伊朗前哨武装

ByERIC R. MANDELAPRIL 16, 2026 13:00From the outset of US-Iran negotiations, a key fault line emerged: whether the ceasefire applied to the Israel-Hezbollah front. As expected, Tehran tested American resolve, seeking concessions beyond the framework, from unfreezing assets to pressing President Donald Trump to restrain Israel in Lebanon.While Washington has treated the Lebanon and Iran fronts as separate, that distinction is inaccurate. Hezbollah is not an independent actor, but a forward arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, deeply intertwined with the regime and responsible, alongside Tehran, for American bloodshed.Over the past two and a half years, I have spent extensive time on the front lines with Israeli troops along the Lebanese border, witnessing Iran’s crown jewel, Hezbollah, repeatedly strike Israeli civilians across the western and northern Galilee, and now even central Israel with drone and missile fire.More than 60,000 Israeli civilians were evacuated beginning on October 8, 2023, amid fears of a cross-border invasion by Hezbollah’s Radwan forces. I am now returning for my 10th visit to the northern border since October 2023. Regardless of developments involving Iran, Israel’s northern front will remain volatile. These conflicts are not isolated; they are interconnected theaters in a regional campaign driven by Iran’s hegemonic ambitions and revolutionary Islamist ideology.This raises a critical question: If the United States reaches a deal with Iran, will Washington pressure Israel to halt operations in the North, leaving tens of thousands of Hezbollah missiles intact and its terror infrastructure free to regenerate?IDF captures Hezbollah weapons in Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (credit: YONAH JEREMY BOB)Hezbollah's control over LebanonHaving covered every Israeli war since the Second Intifada, including the 2006 Lebanon War, I have seen Hezbollah evolve into far more than a terrorist organization. It now exercises effective veto power over the Lebanese state. On April 11, Hezbollah reportedly threatened Lebanon’s prime minister, forcing him to acquiesce to its demands and cancel a visit to Washington amid US-facilitated talks with Israel.Funded and directed by Tehran, Hezbollah operates under the Twelver Shi’ite doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih, aligning its decisions with Iran’s supreme leader. In practice, it functions as a forward-deployed arm of the IRGC, who control the regime.This is not merely Israel’s problem; it is a direct challenge to US strategic interests. Hezbollah has killed hundreds of Americans, most notably in the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing. It maintains global terror and criminal networks, including narcotics pipelines in Latin America that fuel addiction in the United States, generate revenue for terrorism, and destabilize US partners.Allowing Hezbollah to consolidate power and reconstitute would not only endanger Israel but also expand a transnational threat network that directly impacts American homela