拉脱维亚的一项新分析显示，制裁迫使俄罗斯在购买商品时额外支出了1300亿美元。报告称，如果制裁持续，俄罗斯评估还将面临数千亿美元的经济痛苦。经过四年的制裁，其部分出口市场已萎缩50%。北约成员国拉脱维亚的国家安全分析师发布报告估计，俄罗斯在受制裁期间，为了购买西方商品额外支出了1300亿美元。该分析由宪法保护局（SAB）发布，估算基于2022年至2025年的支出，相当于每年损失325亿美元。这一数字仅针对西方商品的进口。此外，由于国际制裁，俄罗斯还损失了数千亿美元的出口市场和被西方银行冻结的资产。分析人士表示，该报告仅计算了从替代渠道购买商品的额外成本，不包括俄罗斯无法找到替代品的情况。情报显示，俄罗斯内部机构正内部预测进一步的损失，尽管其公开宣称经济正成功适应西方制裁的影响。拉脱维亚一直指责俄方利用虚假信息和秘密行动破坏地区稳定。
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规避制裁代价高昂：俄为获取受限商品额外支付千亿美元
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专注于财经与商业的美国主流媒体
摘要
拉脱维亚国家安全机构发布的最新报告指出，由于西方制裁及供应链封锁，俄罗斯在采购必要军事和工业商品时被迫额外支付了约1300亿美元。这份分析基于2022年至2025年的数据，显示俄方为寻找替代供应渠道，平均每年需多承担325亿美元的成本。报告强调，尽管俄政府在公开场合宣称其经济已成功适应制裁，但内部情报显示，其出口市场份额在某些领域缩减了50%，且有数千亿美元的海外资产遭到冻结。这1300亿美元仅涵盖了成功购得商品的溢价，尚未计算因无法获得关键零部件而导致的生产停滞损失。拉脱维亚分析师认为，持续的制裁正在通过显著增加供应链成本，系统性地削弱俄罗斯的长期战争潜力和经济稳定性。此外，俄罗斯内部机构正预测未来几年将面临更严峻的财政压力，出口收入的减少与进口成本的激增正对其财政可持续性构成巨大挑战。
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Moscow's mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, attend an Orthodox Easter service.
Mikhail METZEL / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
2026-04-16T04:31:05.564Z
A new Latvian analysis said sanctions forced Russia to spend an extra $130 billion on buying goods.
It said Russia assesses hundreds of billions of dollars in further economic pain if sanctions continue.
Some of its export markets have also fallen by 50% after four years of sanctions, the report added.
NATO member Latvia's national security analysts have released a report estimating that Russia has spent an additional $130 billion trying to buy Western goods while being sanctioned.
Published last week by the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), the government analysis said the estimate was based on spending from 2022 to 2025, translating to an annual $32.5 billion loss.That estimated figure is just for imports of Western goods. The international sanctions, imposed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, also mean the country has lost hundreds of billions from its export markets and assets frozen by Western banks.The Latvian analysts said their report accounted only for the additional cost of goods eventually bought from alternative sources, and excluded cases where Russia couldn't find substitutes.They added that intelligence showed that Russian institutions are internally forecasting further losses, "despite Russia's public announcements claiming its economy is successfully adapting to the impact of the Western sanctions."
Latvia, one of the Baltic States, sits on Russia's Western flank and has been one of the most outspoken NATO members against the Kremlin, accusing it of running disinformation campaigns and covert operations to destabilize local politics.Its analysts wrote, without providing details about their sources, that one Russian forecast warned foreign trade would lose another $136 billion by 2030 solely due to Western sanctions.Another forecast said a continued loss of trade with Europe would account for about $70 billion of these losses, the analysts added."SAB assesses these estimates to be an undercount — the losses are likely much higher," the report said.The internal estimates don't account for the "entire economic spectrum," it said, such as reduced tax revenues or inflated consumer prices.A separate internal Russian forecast put its energy sector losses at $216.5 billion over the next five years if "Western pressure increases," the Latvian report added. The oil and gas industries typically account for about 15-20% of Russia's GDP and nearly a third of federal revenues.The report added that Russia has been struggling to find alternative markets for its exports in some major sectors. For example, Russian iron ore exports had been reduced by 40% from 2021 to 2025, and timber and
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