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2026年4月17日
涉华 一般 Asia Times 2 分钟阅读

俄方警告或打击欧洲无人机设施引发冲突升级担忧

Asia Times 亚洲评论媒体,涉华与地区战略分析密集
俄方警告或打击欧洲无人机设施引发冲突升级担忧
摘要
俄罗斯高级官员近日发出警告,称不排除打击为乌克兰提供支持的欧洲境内无人机生产设施。这一表态使外界对北约与俄直接对抗的风险产生高度警惕。此类地缘冲突的潜在升级不仅直接影响欧洲安全格局,也对全球防务供应链和中国周边安全评估产生间接压力。军事观察家正密切关注冲突外溢效应是否会影响到大国在亚欧大陆的战略平衡。
中文译文

图片:AI生成

俄罗斯前总统、现任安全会议副主席德米特里·梅德韦杰夫在X平台上发出警告,“俄罗斯国防部的声明必须从字面上理解:制造无人机和其他设备的欧洲设施名单,即是俄罗斯武装力量的潜在目标清单。打击何时成为现实取决于接下来的事态发展。祝你们睡个好觉,欧洲伙伴们!”

此番言论发表之前,俄罗斯国防部公布了为乌克兰生产无人机的外国公司地址。

国防部在声明中表示,此举是因为“欧洲公众不仅应该清楚地了解其安全受威胁的根本原因,还应该知道在他们国家为乌克兰生产无人机及其零部件的‘乌克兰’公司和‘合资’公司的地址及位置。”

这意味着反战活动人士可能会针对这些设施发起行动,类似于此前在捷克发生的针对一家与以色列有关联的武器合作伙伴的纵火袭击。俄罗斯也有可能为此招募破坏分子。

然而,通过公布这些公司的地址并借助梅德韦杰夫的言论放大信息,当局也可能是在为加强安保和威慑潜在的破坏活动制造理由。

这种解释使得一些观察家更加重视梅德韦杰夫关于该名单代表“俄罗斯武装力量潜在目标”的说法,而不仅仅是破坏活动的目标。其暗示俄罗斯可能会将行动升级为直接打击。

虽然俄罗斯国内外的一些支持者可能倾向于这种升级,但这将面临引发更广泛冲突的风险,甚至可能导致第三次世界大战。

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京常被批评者视为行事谨慎,他不太可能因外国无人机供应商而采取这一步,特别是考虑到他在所谓的“蜘蛛网行动”后的克制表现。

那一事件涉及一系列西方支持的乌克兰无人机在

英文原文
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Image: AI-generated

Former Russian president and incumbent deputy chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warned on X that “the Russian Defense Ministry’s statement must be taken literally: the list of European facilities that make drones and other equipment is a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces. When strikes become a reality depends on what comes next. Sleep well, European partners!”

The remarks followed the defense ministry’s publication of the addresses of foreign companies producing drones for Ukraine.

In its statement, the ministry said it acted because “the European public should not only clearly understand the underlying causes of the threats to their safety but also know the addresses, as well as the locations, of ‘Ukrainian’ and ‘joint’ companies producing UAVs and their components for Ukraine in their countries.”

The implication is that antiwar activists could target these facilities, similar to a previous arson attack on an Israeli-linked arms partner in Czechia. It is also possible that Russia could seek to recruit saboteurs for this purpose.

However, by publishing these companies’ addresses and amplifying the message through Medvedev’s comments, authorities may also be creating justification to increase security and deter potential sabotage.

This interpretation has led some observers to give more weight to Medvedev’s claim that the list represents “potential targets for the Russian armed forces,” rather than merely sabotage targets. The suggestion is that Russia could escalate to direct strikes.

While some of Russia’s supporters at home and abroad may favor such escalation, it would risk a broader conflict, potentially even World War III.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, often viewed as cautious by critics, is unlikely to take that step over foreign drone suppliers, particularly given his restraint following what has been described as “Operation Spider Web.”

That episode involved a series of Western-backed Ukrainian drone attacks on elements of Russia’s nuclear triad last summer—the largest such operation to date, though not the first.

Some observers in alternative media interpret Medvedev’s position as deputy chair of the Security Council as evidence that he speaks directly for Putin, but that is not necessarily the case.

As illustrated by debates among analysts such as Sergey Karaganov and Timofei Bordachev — who have proposed sharply different strategies, from escalation against NATO to negotiation with the United States — there appear to be competing factions within Russia’s policymaking community.

Medvedev and Karaganov are often characterized as hawks, while Bordachev and Putin are seen as more moderate.

Over the course of the Ukraine conflict, more hardline proposals have generally not been adopted, suggesting that Medvedev’s latest remarks may not translate into policy. He frequently makes forceful statements that fail to materialize, which may be intended to instill fear in Western policymakers a

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原文链接:https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/will-russia-attack-ukraines-european-drone-suppliers/