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BROWSER2026年4月17日
巴基斯坦调停美伊停火谈判,地区安全局势牵动周边利益
战争边缘美国战略评论平台,涉华军事分析密集
巴基斯坦调停美伊停火谈判,地区安全局势牵动周边利益

After failing to reach an agreement in the first round of talks in Islamabad, the United States and Iran are set to resume talks in the coming days. Via Pakistani mediation, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reportedly made progress toward a framework agreement, though significant gaps remain and a deal is far from guaranteed. In the meantime, President Donald Trump has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, while Israel is pressing ahead with its assault on the Lebanese border town of Bint Jbeil, even as it engages in direct talks with Lebanon in Washington. The two-week ceasefire with Iran is holding, but it remains tenuous.Unlike what has been negotiated so far, an expertly negotiated ceasefire should be extremely specific about the character of the pause in combat operations, including dates, duration, redeployments, withdrawals, and monitoring mechanisms. The broader strategic issues of Iran’s regional influence and its nuclear program should not even be attempted in the rushed manner they were tackled in Islamabad. Rather, the United States and Iran should agree on a structured process with a clear timetable attached. The administration also needs to do far more to bring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into line on both the ceasefire and wider regional objectives, or he risks becoming a persistent spoiler. It is also time to sideline Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, whose negotiation track record has been underwhelming. They should be replaced with experienced State Department negotiators, supported by members of the intelligence community and nuclear experts. High-level political figures like the vice president traditionally appear for summit diplomacy only after the details are worked out.Ceasefires should accomplish two goals. The first goal is a concrete pause in combat operations — the sine qua non of a ceasefire. The second, however, is even more important: a path to resolution of the political problems that got the parties into war in the first place. Many ceasefire negotiations claim success but fall short in one or both dimensions. We analyze the outcomes soberly and point toward better approaches for ending the war. For now, it appears that Trump wants this ceasefire, but Israel and even Hizballah may prefer to spoil it.Trump claims that the war has accomplished the objectives he set out to achieve. But missile programs can and will be restarted, and Iran’s nuclear program was far easier to manage under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that Trump himself derailed.Before the United States and Israel launched their assault on Iran, the country was led by an 86-year-old ailing autocrat who had the backing of the country’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, but also had to contend with career politicians and civil servants who appeared interested in pursuing a détente with the United States through diplomatic channels. The regime also was unpopular with a segment of the population seeking gr