在伊斯兰堡的第一轮谈判未能达成协议后，美国和伊朗将在未来几天恢复谈判。据报道，通过巴基斯坦的调解，美伊谈判代表在框架协议方面取得了进展，尽管仍存在重大分歧，且达成协议远非板上钉钉。与此同时，总统唐纳德·特朗普已对伊朗港口实施封锁，而以色列正在推进对黎巴嫩边境城镇宾特朱拜勒（Bint Jbeil）的进攻，即便它正在华盛顿与黎巴嫩进行直接谈判。与伊朗为期两周的停火协议仍在维持，但依然脆弱。
与目前谈判的情况不同，一份经过专业谈判的停火协议应对战斗行动暂停的性质做出极其详尽的规定，包括日期、持续时间、重新部署、撤军和监督机制。伊朗地区影响力和核计划等更广泛的战略问题，甚至不应以在伊斯兰堡那种草率的方式去尝试解决。相反，美国和伊朗应就一个附带明确时间表的结构化流程达成一致。政府还需要做更多工作，使以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在停火和更广泛的地区目标上保持步调一致，否则他有可能成为一个持久的破坏者。现在也是时候让特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳靠边站了，他们的谈判记录一直不尽如人意。应由经验丰富的国务院谈判专家取代他们，并由情报界成员和核专家提供支持。按照传统，像副总统这样的高级政治人物只有在细节敲定后才会出现在峰会外交场合。
停火应实现两个目标。第一个目标是战斗行动的实质性暂停——这是停火的必要条件。然而，第二个目标甚至更为重要：即为解决导致各方陷入战争的政治问题提供路径。
After failing to reach an agreement in the first round of talks in Islamabad, the United States and Iran are set to resume talks in the coming days. Via Pakistani mediation, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reportedly made progress toward a framework agreement, though significant gaps remain and a deal is far from guaranteed. In the meantime, President Donald Trump has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, while Israel is pressing ahead with its assault on the Lebanese border town of Bint Jbeil, even as it engages in direct talks with Lebanon in Washington. The two-week ceasefire with Iran is holding, but it remains tenuous.Unlike what has been negotiated so far, an expertly negotiated ceasefire should be extremely specific about the character of the pause in combat operations, including dates, duration, redeployments, withdrawals, and monitoring mechanisms. The broader strategic issues of Iran’s regional influence and its nuclear program should not even be attempted in the rushed manner they were tackled in Islamabad. Rather, the United States and Iran should agree on a structured process with a clear timetable attached. The administration also needs to do far more to bring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into line on both the ceasefire and wider regional objectives, or he risks becoming a persistent spoiler. It is also time to sideline Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, whose negotiation track record has been underwhelming. They should be replaced with experienced State Department negotiators, supported by members of the intelligence community and nuclear experts. High-level political figures like the vice president traditionally appear for summit diplomacy only after the details are worked out.Ceasefires should accomplish two goals. The first goal is a concrete pause in combat operations — the sine qua non of a ceasefire. The second, however, is even more important: a path to resolution of the political problems that got the parties into war in the first place. Many ceasefire negotiations claim success but fall short in one or both dimensions. We analyze the outcomes soberly and point toward better approaches for ending the war. For now, it appears that Trump wants this ceasefire, but Israel and even Hizballah may prefer to spoil it.Trump claims that the war has accomplished the objectives he set out to achieve. But missile programs can and will be restarted, and Iran’s nuclear program was far easier to manage under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that Trump himself derailed.Before the United States and Israel launched their assault on Iran, the country was led by an 86-year-old ailing autocrat who had the backing of the country’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, but also had to contend with career politicians and civil servants who appeared interested in pursuing a détente with the United States through diplomatic channels. The regime also was unpopular with a segment of the population seeking gr
