俄罗斯于2022年2月发动的对乌战争已经演变为一场远超地区冲突的事件。它现在是重塑更广泛欧亚安全环境的决定性力量。这场战争的持续时间和连锁反应正迫使各国政府、市场和军队在一个更长的战略周期内运作——其衡量单位是年，而非月。保险市场正在重新评估风险，物流航线正在发生转移，供应链正在重组，制裁机制正变得更加根深蒂固，即便规避制裁的手段也变得更加高明。
历史经验表明，这种规模的战争极少以简单恢复原状而告终。第一次世界大战的余波产生了国际联盟；第二次世界大战催生了联合国和北约。1991年冷战结束重新划定了地图，欧洲、中亚和高加索地区涌现出了新的国家。当今的冲突正证明其具有同样的变革性。它暴露了1991年后欧洲安全框架的缺陷，并加速了新地缘政治秩序的浮现。日益清晰的是，将黑海、高加索和里海视为相互独立的战略“文件夹”已不再反映现实。
在《国家利益》杂志阅读全文。
The war launched by Russia against Ukraine in February 2022 has evolved far beyond a regional conflict. It is now a defining force reshaping the broader Eurasian security environment. Its duration and cascading secondary effects are forcing governments, markets, and militaries to operate on a longer strategic horizon—measured in years, not months. Insurance markets are recalibrating risk, logistics routes are shifting, supply chains are being reconfigured, and sanctions regimes are becoming more entrenched even as the methods used to evade them grow more sophisticated.
History suggests that wars of this magnitude rarely end with a simple restoration of the status quo ante. The aftermath of World War I produced the League of Nations; World War II gave rise to the United Nations and NATO. The end of the Cold War in 1991 redrew the map with new states in Europe, Central Asia, and the Caucasus emerging onto the scene. Today’s conflict is proving similarly transformative. It has exposed the inadequacy of the post-1991 European security framework and accelerated the emergence of a new geopolitical order. It is increasingly clear that treating the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the Caspian Sea as separate strategic “folders” no longer reflects reality.
Read the full article in National Interest.