智库分析称美国陷入中东战争将使中方获益

President Donald Trump was meant to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the end of March to stabilize the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship. But as the Middle East burned, energy prices skyrocketed, and the bodies of U.S. service members returned to the United States, Trump reached the conclusion that a trip to Beijing for a high-profile meeting would not be a good look. On March 16, he postponed the trip until May. The fact that he failed to foresee this collision of crises when he originally announced the summit—just eight days before he launched his war of choice on Iran—exposes the administration’s inability to manage multiple global challenges, even those of its own making.The Trump administration has bandied about a number of goals for its war in Iran, including regime change and destroying the country’s nuclear program. Some Trump boosters have even argued that bombing Iran will help the United States in its competition with China. Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser in Trump’s first term, contended in an interview with Bloomberg that the Iran war challenges China’s “axis of chaos,” which also includes Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The Republican senator and Trump loyalist Lindsey Graham, for his part, said in a March interview with Fox News that U.S. military interventions in oil-rich Iran and Venezuela, which are friendly to Beijing, were “China’s nightmare.”The reality, however, is far different. Despite relying on energy imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, China has insulated itself against a near-term disruption in energy supplies. With the U.S. military bogged down in the Middle East, China has a freer hand in East Asia. As Trump behaves erratically and violates international law, China can present itself as a responsible peacemaker. Even if the U.S.-Iranian cease-fire that was agreed to on April 7 holds, the United States has injured its reputation by acting unpredictably, betraying its allies, and starting a war that has done serious damage to the global economy.When the U.S.-Chinese summit eventually takes place, Xi will enter the talks with significant leverage. While the United States squandered precious military and political capital in the Middle East, China was preparing to get what it wants at the negotiating table. A flailing Trump could trade valuable U.S. assets in exchange for short-term commercial wins—and a lopsided deal with the United States’ biggest rival could undermine U.S. security and prosperity for decades.UNFORCED ERRORTrump’s war of choice in Iran has come at the expense of the United States’ security umbrella in the Indo-Pacific, presenting an opportunity for Beijing. The United States has moved materiel from East Asia to the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, one of only five U.S. aircraft carriers on active duty globally, and powerful missile defense systems. Many of these batteries were taken from South Korea, which for yea