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2026年4月17日
涉华 重要 外交政策 2 分钟阅读

乌克兰冲突警示:自动化战争时代依然难以取代大规模兵员动员

外交政策 国际政策杂志,涉华安全与战略评论频繁
乌克兰冲突警示:自动化战争时代依然难以取代大规模兵员动员
摘要
尽管高科技装备在现代战场上占据显赫地位,但乌克兰的冲突经验表明,充足且受过训练的兵员储备依然是战争的核心支柱。乌方在动员体系上面临的挑战,为各国提供了宝贵的军事启示。在探讨高强度冲突的背景下,如何平衡人工智能、无人装备与传统人力的关系,特别是在面对复杂战场环境下的人员损耗与补给,是各国军事现代化进程中亟需平衡的战略问题。
中文译文

早在2022年,包括美国官员和其他可靠的思想家在内的许多人都认为,如果俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京对乌克兰发起全面入侵,基辅将在几天内沦陷。在乌克兰证明了其出人意料的韧性后,人们开始急于汲取基辅战争方案的经验教训。

但是,当外界将注意力集中在无人机和机器人等技术创新上时,乌克兰人表示,军事成功仍建立在人的基础之上。在战争进入第五年之际,招募和激励士兵是一项日益艰巨的任务——尤其是在乌克兰正与令人泄气的俄罗斯宣传作斗争的情况下。尽管出现了通过无人车辆夺取俄罗斯阵地等时刻,但保卫祖国仍需要人,而且是大量的人。

早在2022年,包括美国官员和其他可靠的思想家在内的许多人都认为,如果俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京对乌克兰发起全面入侵,基辅将在几天内沦陷。在乌克兰证明了其出人意料的韧性后,人们开始急于汲取基辅战争方案的经验教训。

但是,当外界将注意力集中在无人机和机器人等技术创新上时,乌克兰人表示,军事成功仍建立在人的基础之上。在战争进入第五年之际,招募和激励士兵是一项日益艰巨的任务——尤其是在乌克兰正与令人泄气的俄罗斯宣传作斗争的情况下。尽管出现了通过无人车辆夺取俄罗斯阵地等时刻,但保卫祖国仍需要人,而且是大量的人。

“当人们看到使用无人车辆可以取得什么成就时,我们看到一些建议认为可以在没有人员的情况下打仗,”乌克兰安全与合作中心(USCC)联合创始人奥莱西亚·霍里亚诺娃表示,“这是一个美好的想法,但为了守住领土以及操作无人机(UAV)和无人地面车辆(UGV),你需要人员亲自在那里。”

至少在理...

英文原文
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Back in 2022, many people assumed, including U.S. officials and other credible thinkers, that if Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv would fall in a matter of days. After Ukraine proved unexpectedly resilient, there has been a rush to learn the lessons of Kyiv’s approach to war.

But while outsiders have focused on technological innovation such as drones and robots, Ukrainians say that military success is still built on a human foundation. Recruiting, and motivating, soldiers is an increasingly tough task in the fifth year of the war—especially as Ukraine battles demoralizing Russian propaganda. Despite moments like the seizure of a Russian position through unmanned vehicles, defending the homeland still needs human beings—and lots of them.

Back in 2022, many people assumed, including U.S. officials and other credible thinkers, that if Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv would fall in a matter of days. After Ukraine proved unexpectedly resilient, there has been a rush to learn the lessons of Kyiv’s approach to war.

But while outsiders have focused on technological innovation such as drones and robots, Ukrainians say that military success is still built on a human foundation. Recruiting, and motivating, soldiers is an increasingly tough task in the fifth year of the war—especially as Ukraine battles demoralizing Russian propaganda. Despite moments like the seizure of a Russian position through unmanned vehicles, defending the homeland still needs human beings—and lots of them.

“When people saw what could be achieved with unmanned vehicles, we saw some suggestions that wars could be fought without personnel,” said Olesia Horiainova, a co-founder of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center (USCC). “It’s a nice idea, but to hold territory and to operate UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and UGVs [unmanned ground vehicles], you need people physically there.”

At least in theory, Ukraine has plenty of available manpower. As of 2026, its armed forces has around 900,000 active personnel, with a few million more in reserve.

The vast majority of those currently serving in Ukraine are men ages 25 to 60 who have been conscripted—unsurprising in a country currently fending off the largest invasion force in Europe since the end of World War II. These fighters have defied the odds and defended Ukraine under enormous pressure. Conscription does not extend to women, though more than 70,000 serve in the country’s armed forces.

But multiple military officials in Ukraine, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the nature of their work, said four years of war have taken a toll on national morale and led to some tension between civilians and the armed forces. This includes skepticism of the conscription process—a problem for a country in need of fighters.

Their advice to countries that have the luxury of rebuilding armies in peacetime is simple: Willing re

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原文链接:https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/16/ukraine-conscription-recruitment-manpower/