Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Last week, for the first time in human history, an attack by unmanned drones and robots captured an enemy position on the ground. “The future is here,” said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, after describing the mechanical assault by his forces against a Russian outpost.
This historical first would be a surprise to Moscow, which believed — together with support from Iran — that it was mastering the art of drone warfare in Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine is now out-innovating Russia just as the US is degrading Iran’s drone and missile programs, which since 2023 have helped Russia sustain its brutal assaults against Ukrainian cities and towns.
Seeing these two theaters — Ukraine and Iran — as interconnected can help the United States better prepare for wars of the future and remain steps ahead of its adversaries.
It might also help bring the Ukraine war to a close.
Iran’s missiles and drones — targeting Americans
I was the White House’s point person on the Middle East throughout the crisis that engulfed the region after Hamas’ attack in Israel on October 7, 2023. In every dimension, it was the most complex and horrifying situation that I had seen in two decades — in part because Iran chose early on to join the mayhem and attack Americans with missiles and drones.
On Christmas Day 2023, a complex attack with Iranian Shahed drones on American positions in northern Iraq grievously wounded an American soldier. One month later, on January 20, 2024, an Iranian drone killed three American soldiers in Jordan.
That same month in the Red Sea, the US Navy fended off 18 attack drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one antiship ballistic missile traveling at Mach-4. Thanks only to defenses and the skills of our sailors, no Americans were killed or wounded in the attack.
Iran and Russia use the same technology — and tactics
In the early months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran transferred its Shahed drones to Russia for use against Ukrainian cities, towns and infrastructure. Later, it transferred the technology to manufacture the drones and established co-production lines inside Russia. These assembly lines were soon producing nearly 400 Shahed drones every day.
The mass production of Iranian drones resulted in Russia’s regular swarm attacks against Ukrainian targets, something the world had never seen before. Iran soon borrowed the same tactic — on April 13, 2024, it fired 180 Shahed drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles at Israeli cities. The aim is to use drone swarms to overwhelm and deplete air defenses as heavier payload and faster-moving ballistic missiles then move to strike.
Over four years of war — forced by necessity to defend