布雷特·麦格克（Brett McGurk）是CNN全球事务分析师，曾在乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登总统任内担任高级国家安全职务。
上周，人类历史上首次出现了由无人机和机器人发起的攻击夺取地面敌方阵地的案例。乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在描述其部队对俄罗斯前哨基地进行的机械化突击后表示：“未来已至。”
这一历史性的“首次”会让莫斯科感到意外，因为莫斯科曾认为，在伊朗的支持下，自己正掌握在乌克兰进行无人机战争的技术。相反，乌克兰现在正于创新上超越俄罗斯，正如美国正在削弱伊朗的无人机和导弹计划一样，自2023年以来，这些计划一直在帮助俄罗斯对乌克兰城镇维持残酷的袭击。
将乌克兰和伊朗这两个战区视为相互关联的，可以帮助美国更好地为未来战争做好准备，并领先对手几步。
这也许还有助于推动乌克兰战争走向终结。
伊朗的导弹和无人机——目标对准美国人
在2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列后席卷该地区的危机期间，我一直担任白宫的中东事务负责人。在每一个维度上，这都是我二十年来所见过的最复杂、最恐怖的局势——部分原因是伊朗早早选择加入这场混乱，并使用导弹和无人机袭击美国人。
2023年圣诞节，一次使用伊朗“见证者”（Shahed）无人机对伊拉克北部美国阵地发起的复杂袭击，导致一名美国士兵受重伤。一个月后的2024年1月20日，一架伊朗无人机在约旦杀害了三名美国士兵。
同月在红海，美国海军击退了18架攻击型无人机、两枚反舰巡航导弹和一枚以4马赫速度飞行的反舰弹道导弹。这仅归功于防御系统和我们水兵的技术，
Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Last week, for the first time in human history, an attack by unmanned drones and robots captured an enemy position on the ground. “The future is here,” said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, after describing the mechanical assault by his forces against a Russian outpost.
This historical first would be a surprise to Moscow, which believed — together with support from Iran — that it was mastering the art of drone warfare in Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine is now out-innovating Russia just as the US is degrading Iran’s drone and missile programs, which since 2023 have helped Russia sustain its brutal assaults against Ukrainian cities and towns.
Seeing these two theaters — Ukraine and Iran — as interconnected can help the United States better prepare for wars of the future and remain steps ahead of its adversaries.
It might also help bring the Ukraine war to a close.
Iran’s missiles and drones — targeting Americans
I was the White House’s point person on the Middle East throughout the crisis that engulfed the region after Hamas’ attack in Israel on October 7, 2023. In every dimension, it was the most complex and horrifying situation that I had seen in two decades — in part because Iran chose early on to join the mayhem and attack Americans with missiles and drones.
On Christmas Day 2023, a complex attack with Iranian Shahed drones on American positions in northern Iraq grievously wounded an American soldier. One month later, on January 20, 2024, an Iranian drone killed three American soldiers in Jordan.
That same month in the Red Sea, the US Navy fended off 18 attack drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one antiship ballistic missile traveling at Mach-4. Thanks only to defenses and the skills of our sailors, no Americans were killed or wounded in the attack.
Iran and Russia use the same technology — and tactics
In the early months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran transferred its Shahed drones to Russia for use against Ukrainian cities, towns and infrastructure. Later, it transferred the technology to manufacture the drones and established co-production lines inside Russia. These assembly lines were soon producing nearly 400 Shahed drones every day.
The mass production of Iranian drones resulted in Russia’s regular swarm attacks against Ukrainian targets, something the world had never seen before. Iran soon borrowed the same tactic — on April 13, 2024, it fired 180 Shahed drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles at Israeli cities. The aim is to use drone swarms to overwhelm and deplete air defenses as heavier payload and faster-moving ballistic missiles then move to strike.
Over four years of war — forced by necessity to defend
