Europe could run dangerously low on jet fuel within weeks as tensions in the Middle East disrupt one of the world’s most critical shipping routes.
The warning came from the International Energy Agency, as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut following an escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran that began on February 28.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency, told the Associated Press that the situation is unprecedented in scale.
He described it as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” adding that the economic damage will not be limited to Europe. Developing regions across Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to feel even sharper impacts.
“Everybody is going to suffer,” Birol said about the economic pain that will be caused if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened for good.
The disruption is already hitting aviation hard. Around 75% of Europe’s imported jet fuel comes from the Middle East, making the region highly vulnerable to supply interruptions. With shipments stalled, airlines are expected to begin canceling flights as fuel reserves shrink.
Some U.S. carriers have already started adjusting to rising costs by increasing baggage fees. Industry analysts warn that ticket prices could climb next if the crisis continues.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, previously handled about 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments. With traffic now heavily restricted, supply chains for refined fuels such as jet fuel are under severe strain.
Shipping tensions and controversial toll proposals
Iran has reportedly explored a controversial system to allow ships through the strait by charging tolls. These fees could reach as high as $2 million per vessel, potentially paid in cryptocurrency. The idea has sparked concern among global energy leaders.
Birol pushed back against the proposal, emphasizing the need for uninterrupted oil flow. “I would like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from point A to point B,” he told the Associated Press.
Adding to the complexity, President Donald Trump has suggested the possibility of a joint toll system involving both the United States and Iran. Such proposals have raised questions about control of international waterways and the future of global energy trade.
Military escalation deepens uncertainty
The current crisis traces back to the military campaign launched on February 28, when U.S. and Israeli forces began strikes on Iran. The justification for the conflict has shifted over time, ranging from preventing nuclear development to broader geopolitical goals.
Despite repeated claims from Trump that the U.S. has already won, Iran’s government remains in place, and there are no clear signs that its nuclear capabilities have been eliminated.
In response to the conflict, Iran has effectively shut down most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has countered with what it calls a targeted blockade of Iranian ports i