战争研究所（ISW）和美国企业研究所的“关键威胁项目”（CTP）发布每日简报，分析与伊朗的战争动态。简报聚焦于美国和以色列对伊朗的打击，以及伊朗及其“抵抗之弧”的回应。
关键要点
美国海军继续对伊朗港口实施封锁。美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）于 4 月 15 日报告称，在封锁实施的前 48 小时内，没有船只违反禁令。
据报道，美国为新一轮谈判设定了两个前提条件：首先，伊朗必须完全“重新开放”霍尔木兹海峡；其次，伊朗谈判代表团必须拥有敲定协议的“全权”。第二个条件是在有报道称伊朗政权内部存在冲突的背景下提出的，这证实了美方正在与一个分裂的决策层进行谈判。
部分伊朗官员对核计划谈判表现出不同程度的妥协意愿，这在一定程度上反映了内部在谈判立场上的分歧。
以色列国防部长伊斯拉埃尔·卡茨于 4 月 14 日表示，美以双方已决定将移除伊朗的浓缩铀作为结束军事行动的“门槛条件”。
美国财政部于 4 月 15 日制裁了包括 3 名个人、17 家公司和 9 艘船只在内的 29 个目标，这些目标涉及伊朗石油走私及相关融资网络，这是美国对伊朗广泛经济压力行动的一部分。
巴基斯坦据称正推动美伊双方将停火协议延长 45 天。美国总统特朗普于 4 月 14 日告诉美国广播公司，他目前不考虑延长停火。
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period.
Key Takeaways
US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on April 15 that no vessels had breached the blockade on Iranian ports during the first 48 hours of enforcement.
The United States has reportedly set two preconditions for another round of negotiations: first, Iran must fully “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz, and second, the Iranian negotiating delegation must have “full authority” to finalize a deal. The second precondition comes amid reports of intra-regime conflict and corroborates ISW-CTP’s assessment that the United States is negotiating with a divided council of hardliners and pragmatists rather than a singular, unified authority.
Some Iranian officials have signaled different levels of willingness to compromise on Iran’s nuclear program in negotiations with the United States. These statements, at least to some extent, reflect internal disagreement over Iran’s negotiating position.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 14 that the United States and Israel have decided that removing the enriched uranium from Iran is a “threshold condition” for ending the US-Israeli campaign.
The US Treasury sanctioned 29 targets, including three individuals, 17 companies, and nine vessels on April 15, which are tied to Iranian oil smuggling and associated financing networks as part of the United States’ broader economic pressure campaign on Iran.
Pakistan is reportedly pushing the United States and Iran to extend the ceasefire by 45 days. US President Donald Trump told ABC News on April 14 that he is not considering extending the ceasefire that ends on April 22.
Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its ballistic missile forces program on the tactical level by attempting to reopen tunnel entrances at missile bases.
Iran reportedly utilized an advanced reconnaissance satellite purchased from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2024 to target US military assets and bases across the Middle East during the war.
The Israeli Security Cabinet reportedly held a meeting on April 15 to discuss a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, amid recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon under US auspices. Israeli officials have not announced the outcome of the security cabinet meeting at the time of this writing, however.
Toplines
US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on April 15 that no vessels had breached the blockade on Iranian ports during the first 48 hours of enforcement.[1] CENTCOM stated that nine vessels complied with the US direction
